Presidential Elections: What to Expect, Minnesota?

A hectic year is upon us.

By Gabriel Matias Castilho

The latest presidential election poll conducted in Minnesota revealed the two likely presidential candidates, incumbent Joe Biden (D) and Donald Trump (R), were neck and neck in the race for the White House. Biden scored 45% to Trump’s 42% in Nov. 17, but the polls indicated this number was within the 2.6% margin of error. All of this strongly indicates Minnesota will still be a battleground state, even though the state has routinely voted Democrat in every presidential election since 1972. However, the term “battleground” is no longer just CNN newsroom jargon anymore. 

The Democrats currently hold the trifecta—control of the state House, the state Senate and the Governor’s office—but this is overshadowed by a growing rural-metro divide. The delicate reputation of the state police department becomes a double-edged sword: while it adds a global spotlight to cases of police brutality in the state, it decreases morale among officers and leads to less officer enlistment. This, in turn, makes law enforcement harder—at least according to police chief Brian O’Hara’s words last year when requesting an increase to the department’s budget. Homicides are still well above 2019 rates for the Twin Cities, and thefts from empty vehicles skyrocketed this year. 

What does this mean for the future of the state in light of the upcoming presidential election? How might residents of the cities react following the 2024 presidential election? Honestly, I might not have a clear answer to that question, but I know residents of the cities will likely have a very different reaction than that of residents of rural Minnesota. With one side claiming a “civil war” is coming and the other trying to make sure the state does not repeat 2020, Minnesota is for sure expected to have a hectic year ahead.

Bibliography:

‘One Minnesota’ vs. rural-metro divergence  | MinnPost

Car thefts spike in Minneapolis, drop in St. Paul per new report - Axios Twin Cities

Violent crime declined in Minneapolis and St. Paul in 2023 - Axios Twin Cities

Poll: Biden, Trump running virtually neck-and-neck in Minnesota | MinnPost